New Delhi
Muhammad Ali Jinnah had an important role in the construction of Pakistan. On this basis, in 1947, there was a demand for the partition of India and the creation of Pakistan. This principle mainly argued that Hindus and Muslims of the Indian subcontinent are two different nations, whose religious, cultural, social and historical identity are so different that they cannot live in a nation together. This theory justified the establishment of a separate country, Pakistan, for Muslim -majority regions.
In 1971 itself, East Pakistan separated from Pakistan and made a separate country Bangladesh. This principle ended on the same day. But the rulers of Pakistan still call for this principle to save their throne and prevent Pakistan from disintegrating. A few days before the Pahalgam attack, the head of the Pakistani Army, Asim Munir, while addressing a conference of migrant Pakistanis, had said to Nation Theory right. In this conference, Munir had raised a lot of poison against India, proving his superiority on Hindus. This is the reason that people in Pakistan also believe that Munir has carried out Pahalgam attack due to his ambition. But the whole Pakistan is suffering the brunt of Pahalgam attack. After the operations of Operation Sindoor, it seems that Pakistan’s future is in the balance. Let us see what can happen to Pakistan in future?
1-In-Pakistan, after removing Munir, a military dictator comes, partial democracy also ends
Marshal La has a history in Pakistan. Here the army has captured power many times in the past such as in 1958, 1977, 1999. Currently, the political influence of the army is strong. The way the wind is blowing in Pakistan against the current army chief Asim Munir, the danger is increasing for him. It is possible that after eating the mouth of the Pakistani army at the hands of India, another military officer of the army will be imprisoned Munir and becomes a dictator himself. Recently, there were many reports of internal dissatisfaction in the Pak Army.
In March 2025, Junior officers (Colonel, Major, Captain Rank) of the Pakistani Army wrote an open letter against Aseem Munir, seeking their resignation. In the letter, he was accused of making the army a weapon of political oppression, crushing democratic forces and promoting economic waste.
The letter compared the 1971 war, stating that Munir’s leadership put the army’s reputation into the gutter and made the army to be imprisoned among the public.
Some media reports and X posts claimed that 500 soldiers resigned collectively, although the Army Headquarters refused to accept it.
Obviously, everything is not going well in the Pak Army. The history of Pakistan has been that in such a situation a new leadership is born which always comes from the coup. The general public also accepts military rule due to economic crisis, terrorism, and political instability.
2-Pakistan can be like Syria
How difficult the war is for Pakistan is that it can be understood that the Government of Pakistan is in financial crisis from now on. It is obvious that in such a situation the debt crisis (repaying $ 73 billion by 2025) and unemployment is sure to increase. If this happens, social unrest (demonstration, strike) can give rise to protests like Syria. PTM in BLA and KPK in Balochistan can increase violence. There are many claims on social media that Balochistan is moving towards independence, and India’s support can further increase this problem. Groups such as TTP and ISIS-Khorasan can spread chaos like Syria’s ISIS, especially in KPK and Balochistan. It is obvious that the entire focus of the Pak Army will be on the rescue of the Indian Army. Its influence and the government’s disability will increase which can further increase the dissatisfaction of the public, as against Assad in Syria.
3-India will draw limited military conflict until Pakistan itself breaks down
India’s strategy may be to convert tension with Pakistan into limited military conflicts. The kind of steps that India has taken after the Pahgam attack gives some similar indication. Steps like suspending the Indus Water Treaty and Operation Sindoor are a similar decision that India will want to prolong limited military conflict instead of getting into the war. Firing, surgical strikes, or airstrikes may increase on the border from both India and Pakistan. The United Nations, America, and Iran have appealed for restraint but no one wants to come forward openly from any side.
Actually, economic losses will be especially to Pakistan due to limited conflict. Because his economy is already weak. India’s military superiority (S-400, Rafael) can give him an edge. India would like that Pakistan should be trapped in the war in such a way that its financial back breaks. The army will be trapped on the Indian border, due to which the situation in Baloch and Khyber Pakhtunwa, Sindh etc. in Pakistan will become uncontrolled.
4-Pakistan should be divided into at least 3 pieces
From the kind of aggression that India is showing this time, it seems that it is ready for war like 1971. If there is a direct contest in India and Pakistan, then areas like Balochistan, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa can fly. Some people claim that India, Afghanistan and some other countries can support these movements. Pakistan is already in economic crisis. The government of Pakistan is in a weak position due to debt burden (repaying $ 73 billion by 2025) and a lack of foreign exchange reserves ($ 4.3 billion, 2023). India will directly take advantage of it. If Balochistan and Sindh declare independence, then India will be the first to recognize them. Due to these separatist movements of Pakistan, neighboring countries like Afghanistan or Iran can also increase their influence.
