New Delhi
The tension in India-Pakistan relations has deepened after the Pahalgam attack. India has taken a big diplomatic step against Pakistan and suspended the historic Indus Water Treaty of 1960. Due to India’s hit, Pakistan has been shaken up to Pakistan and the leaders have started giving joy. There is a cloud of crisis on Pakistan after the Indus Water Treaty is suspended. Flood or drought… both are sure to create an outcry in Pakistan. The situation is such that Pak does not know what is going to happen next?
Actually, 26 people have lost their lives in the terrorist attack in Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir. The attack has been taken by the terrorist organization The Resistance Front (TRF), which is considered an ally of Pakistan-based banned terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba. India has also made it clear that the roots of ‘cross -border terrorism’ will be merged into the soil. India has taken major decisions to teach Pakistan a lesson.
India informed Pakistan
India has informed Pakistan through an official letter that the Indus Water Treaty is being suspended with immediate effect. In the letter, India made it clear that this decision has been taken due to the continuous border terrorism by Pakistan.
What is Indus Water Treaty?
In the year 1960, there was water distribution between India and Pakistan in the mediation of the World Bank. Under the treaty, India was given complete control over Ravi, Beas and Sutlej rivers. Whereas Pakistan was empowered over the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers, which flow through Jammu and Kashmir. The question is arising that what will be the impact on Pakistan with the suspension of water-sharing agreement?
What will change now?
1. Indus Water Commissioners’ meetings closed
Now there will be no annual meetings of the Water Commissioners of both countries, which will stop the paths for dialogue and disputes. In fact, under the treaty, two commissioners of both countries were given arrangements to meet in turn once a year. After India suspends the treaty, there will be no such meeting now.
2. Water related data will not be found
India will no longer inform Pakistan about the flow of rivers, flood warnings and glacier melting. This may increase the chances of flood or drought in Pakistan.
Under the treaty, India was circulating hydrological data on time to Pakistan. Flood warnings were issued in this. The flow of the river was shared and alert was given on the pattern of glacier melting. Now Pakistan is at risk of potential drought or flood due to lack of information about the water level of the Indus River and its tributaries.
3. Information about projects will not be available
India will now be able to carry forward its hydroelectric projects on Western rivers without consulting Pakistan. That is, the flow of information between the two countries will stop. This treaty empowered Pakistan to mark the design of Indian hydroelectric projects on western rivers.
4. Pakistani commissioner does not enter Jammu and Kashmir
The Indus Water Commissioner of Pakistan will no longer be able to inspect the Indian regions, so that they will not get information about Indian projects. Earlier, Pakistan Commissioners were visiting Jammu and Kashmir to take the status or report of Western rivers and Indian hydroelectric projects.
5. No publication of annual report
Now Permanent Indus Commission will not publish any report, which will affect Pakistan’s irrigation and agricultural plans. According to the Indus Water Treaty, the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) is a bilateral body to manage the division of the Indus system. It has to publish an annual report on the common use of rivers. But the annual report will not be published due to the suspension of the agreement by India, which will pose a risk for Pakistan’s irrigation and agricultural systems.
What will be affected on Pakistan?
Pakistan is already struggling with financial and political upheaval. This decision is going to have far -reaching impact on him. Pakistan is very dependent on the Indus River for agriculture, which is the backbone of its economy. Pakistan’s 90% of the irrigation system is based on the Indus River. Any type of disruption in water supply can endanger its agricultural production and food security.
Any disruption in water supply from western rivers or future disruption can increase the lack of water in Pakistan. Can reduce crop yields and promote domestic disturbance. Especially in the provinces like Punjab and Sindh, which are already struggling with lack of water, the situation may become worse.
Apart from agricultural generation, power supply will also have a huge impact. Already due to lack of water, Pakistan imports about 19 million tonnes of coal annually, but the financial burden of coal imports may increase further. Today, more than 60 percent of Pakistan’s GDP is in debt.
Understand the reason for Pakistan’s billet
After the terrorist attack in Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir, the Government of India has decided to suspend the Indus Water Treaty (IWT). This decision may affect Pakistan’s agricultural economy. This is the reason why he has gone to the party. Experts believe that this may cause obstruction of water data sharing, lack of water in crop season and heavy loss to the agricultural sector. However, its long -term impact will depend on how long India is able to develop a infrastructure to use Western rivers water. It can take a decade or more time.
The Indus Water Treaty was done in 1960. This is an important agreement on water sharing between India and Pakistan. According to this treaty, Eastern rivers – Sutlej, Beas and Ravi – were given to India. At the same time, Western rivers – Indus, Jhelum and Chenab – were given to Pakistan.
Pakistan will have to suffer serious economic consequences
However, there is no provision to allow unilateral suspension in this treaty. This means that this decision of the Government of India can raise questions on how much is legally correct. Experts say that India is geographically benefit from this treaty. However, Pakistan may have to suffer serious economic consequences. Pakistan has described stopping the Indus Water Agreement as ‘Water Warfare’. Describing it as ‘illegal’, he has said that he has authority over each drop. He will defend it with full force.
Himanshu Thakkar of South Asia Network on Dams, Reverse and People (Sandrp) says that the treaty has no rule of unilateral suspension. He also said that India is already using most of the water of its part of the eastern rivers. In the case of Western rivers, India does not have the necessary structure to stop water immediately.
It may take about five to seven years for the ongoing projects in the Chenab Basin region to complete. Only then India will have the power to control the flow of water.
Pakistan’s economy will collapse
Experts believe that Pakistan’s economy is already facing difficulties. As such, this possible crisis can put him in even more difficulty. Agriculture contributes 22.7 percent to Pakistan’s GDP. It also provides employment to 37.4 percent people.
Environmental worker Shripad Dharmadhikari says that the agriculture and economy of the Indus basin is very much dependent on the river water. According to the World Bank report, the Indus system irrigates 90 percent of Pakistan’s food crops.
Dharmadhikari also said that India does not have the ability to faster the flow of water. The infrastructure required for this is not present yet. However, he also said that by changing the reservoir operations, methods like preventing water flow in some rivers can be tried. This may affect for some time.
Former Indian Commissioner PK Saxena told Natstrat for Indus Water that India should intensify the development on western rivers. Also, be ready to re -interact on the treaty and challenge Pakistan’s misinterpretations. He said, “India should give a strategic response to strategically, showing activeness in a fresh interaction on the treaty by accelerating development on western rivers and challenging the selected interpretations of Pakistan.”
What is Indus Water Agreement
In 1960, India and Pakistan had signed an agreement on the use of water of the Indus Water System rivers. Under this agreement, India can use three Eastern rivers Sutlej, Beas and Ravi river water. At the same time, Pakistan was empowered over the water of Western rivers Jhelum, Chenab and Indus. The thing to note here is that under the Indus Water Agreement, India kept only 20 percent of the water in the agreement with Pakistan. India allowed Pakistan to use 80 percent water to Pakistan instead of peace.
Can the water of all three rivers be stopped overnight
The decision taken by India by suspending the Indus Water Agreement clearly means that India will no longer allow Western rivers i.e. Jhelum, Chenab and Indus river water to use Pakistan, but the question is whether it is so easy? In fact, India does not have this infrastructure recently, so that this water can be prevented from reaching Pakistan overnight. Even if India does this by making dams or storing water, then there may be severe floods in states like Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab.
So how long will it take to stop water?
If we look at the current conditions, India has planned four projects on all three western rivers. There are two operations in it and two preparations are going on. India has started the Baglihar Dam and Ratle project on Pakistan -part Chenab. Another tributary of Chenab has started the Pakal Dull Project on Marusudar and Kishanganga Project on Jhelum’s Sahayak River Neelam. Out of this, only Baglihar Dam and Kishanganga project are on. In such a situation, if India stops the water of the three rivers of Pakistan, then it is likely to take a lot of time. Actually, India will have to prepare infrastructure to use millions of cusecs of water from these three rivers. Pakistan experts are also doing the same thing. Pakistani leaders say that India cannot stop the water received from the Indus Water Agreement overnight, so they have enough time to fight a legal battle against this decision of India.
What problems can Pakistan have?
– Lack of water: Pakistan’s agriculture is mainly dependent on the water of the Indus River. Pakistan may face water scarcity due to suspension of the treaty. This can reduce crop yields and food security may be endangered.
– Economic Loss: Agriculture is an important part of Pakistan’s economy. Lack of water will lead to a decline in agricultural production, causing damage to Pakistan’s economy.
