Due to the increasing tension between Israel and Iran and the prolongation of the Russia-Ukraine war, experts are worried that the ongoing conflict in two parts of the world may turn into the Third World War. Amidst this, many major economic upheavals are seen taking place in the global economy. If this apprehension turns out to be true then it may affect India also. Here, everyone from the working class to the common man will have to pay the price. However, the government is making concrete efforts at many levels to deal with this crisis.
Uncertainty increased: Former JNU professor and economist Arun Kumar says that at present uncertainty has increased a lot, hence if there is a war, there will be a big impact on India’s economy. Inflation will increase and demand will also decrease, due to which the organized sector will also be affected. Companies will do layoffs, which will increase unemployment. Along with this, many other areas will not remain untouched by its impact.
What will be the impact of war and what is its impact now?
- There will be an increase in the prices of petrol, diesel, CNG, household cylinders and PNG gas.
- Transportation costs will also increase, the burden of which will range from food, clothing to housing.
- Importing and exporting from foreign countries will also be expensive.
- India imports pulses in large quantities, which will become expensive.
- Export of mobiles, engineering goods, pharma and agriculture related products will also be expensive.
- The value of rupee is falling against the dollar. The price of one dollar has crossed Rs 84.
- Cut in key interest rates may be averted, RBI has kept the repo rate at 6.5 for the last six times.
- A huge decline has been seen in the stock market in October. The Sensex has fallen six thousand points from its highest peak and has fallen to its lowest level in two months.
- Foreign institutional investors are continuously withdrawing money from Indian markets. More than Rs 90 thousand crore have been withdrawn in October itself.
- The quarterly results of many big companies have not been as per expectations, which points towards a financial crisis.
- Investors are investing money in safe places, due to which the prices of gold and silver have increased.
This is how worries will increase for employed people
If the economic situation changes, employed people will also face problems. They may have to wait for salary hike or promotion. Besides, real estate and banking sectors will also be affected. There could also be a widespread impact on the auto and service sectors.
If crude oil rises, there will be a sharp rise in inflation.
At present, India buys about 80 percent of its crude oil requirement from Russia and the Gulf countries in the Middle East. If there is a war, the prices of crude oil will rise. FIEO Director General and CEO Dr. Ajay Sahay says that if the price of crude oil increases by $ 10 per barrel in the international market, it increases inflation in India by half a percent. Crude oil prices had crossed the level of $ 74 per barrel after Iran fired rockets at Israel. At present the prices are around $70 per barrel.
